Mortality rate, spread, duration: virologist in grants, with the Numbers jumble around Corona

The Figures and facts of the Coronavirus is confusing. There are lots of different information circulating. Christian Drosten, a virologist at Berlin’s Charité hospital, has now classified at the Federal press conference the current state of research in Germany.

"It is currently almost impossible to how dangerous the Virus ist", as a virologist, Drosten. You do not know the Virus well enough yet. And, therefore, could change estimates also in a short time. Especially important is three things be used for the assessment of a disease:

• Case mortality
• Speed of propagation
• Duration of a possible pandemic/epidemic

Reader tip: Top virologist: "Germany needs two weeks Corona Ferien"

Case mortality in Corona

This deck is currently between 0.3 and 0.7 percent, says Drosten, of the other bills is contrary to that of more than two per cent going out.

"Social media is made for this purpose, a lot of Drama. And there are also many efforts to make Drama." For example, there are now companies that wanted to Profit from the Figures, and specifically to the high mortality rates would scatter, so Drosten. "I don’t think it’s good, if you pay the case is not properly consider." Many would expect that new patients might die in two weeks, all is still and thus the Rate could significantly increase. But this is not a reputable method of calculation.

All the latest developments of the Virus you find in the News Ticker.

Speed of propagation

A key number for a pandemic or epidemic is, how fast the disease is spreading. This would have the "highest Informationswert", to be here but also on "most difficult to schätzen", so Drosten. The question is, how many people become infected with a sick person in contact. "The current Numbers are 5 to 10 Prozent", the virologist explains.

The sun under the Spread of Influenza pandemics – where to "not the seasonal Grippe" was meant to be. "There is, however, quite large uncertainties – which can ändern&quot also very coarse;, so Drosten more.

Basically, he stressed: "There are many mild cases. This is the reason, such as a cold." For Each of the disease is therefore not a big Problem, if he does not belong to any risk group.

The duration of the pandemic/epidemic

How long will it take until the Corona epidemic is over in Germany? Said this question of the virologist last week that nearly 70 percent of the population would have to infect, so the disease can be stopped. As a result, he got a lot of indignant reactions, said Drosten now. And began straight away to explain how he came to the number. “This is not a Menacing,” says Drosten. “This is something Bad, quite Natural, nothing at all, if extending over a longer period of time.”

Drosten provided the corresponding calculation example. You go currently assume that a Diseased in an average of three other people to infect. “So in the first week, the second week three, in the third week of the nine.” Now the question is: was going to happen, “What must stop?” It must be the goal to push this ratio below one. Then the disease would continue to spread. And the passing, if at least two out of three people are immune to infection, so already have had the disease. “And two of the three are 67 percent, “says Drosten.

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Infected are really immune against Coronavirus?

However, Corona can be Infected really immune to the disease? RKI-chief Lothar Wieler: "Patients have neutralizing Antikörper", which made you immune. "How long the immunity lasts, we can of course answer afterwards." Drosten supplements that from Asia, with Multiple infections reported had been. He had looked at the cases and could not confirm it.

"Sometimes people go to the hospital, and in the case of a severe course in the following week, again to the hospital. Maybe even in a different. And then you are tested once positive and the second Time again." But it is the same infection. "This disease leads to haben&quot misunderstandings;, so Drosten.

 

Spahn will start "reinforced Kommunikationsoffensive"

Drostens designs are part of a "reinforced Kommunikationsoffensive", so the Federal Minister of health, Jens Spahn. The Coronavirus do many people fear and worry, says Spahn.

He can also see that the Hotlines were partially overheated. He evaluates the "high need for information of the Menschen" as "good Zeichen" and want to &quot by using the expert and their factual information;Uncertainties abbauen".

Important telephone numbers at Covid-19-suspicion

The Federal government recommends that: In the case of Coronavirus-symptoms, is it call better, instead of sitting in the waiting room.

• 116 117: A Doctor’s On-Call Service
• 115: Unitary Authorities Number
• 0800 011 77 22: Independent Patient Counselling Germany
• 030 346 465 100: citizens telephone of the Federal Ministry of health  
  

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More on the topic of Coronavirus:

• Symptoms, risk, protection, Coronavirus, or influenza? These are the differences of the infections
• The Federal government advises the use of emergency stock – the Hartz IV need to know receiver
• Coronavirus in the district of Heinsberg: "The Situation takes on alarming proportions an"

 

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