Coronavirus: The number of people that have to get the virus for it to slow down

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the UK currently sits at 798, a figure that is expected to surge in the coming weeks as the virus enters its peak phase. Public health experts are urging the general public to self-impose social distancing measures to mitigate the impact of the virus. The logic behind the advice is clear: reducing the number of interactions you have each day should slow down the rate of spread.

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Another approach to slowing down the spread somewhat contradicts the central idea behind social distancing, however.

According to Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return “year on year”.

Speaking to Sky News earlier today, Sir Patrick estimated that around 60 percent of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have “herd immunity” from future outbreaks.

Herd immunity is the resistance to a contagious disease within a population because enough people have become immune, and so it is harder for it to spread.

Speaking to Sky News, Sir Patrick said: “We think this virus is likely to be one that comes year on year, becomes like a seasonal virus.

“Communities will become immune to it and that’s going to be an important part of controlling this longer term.

“About 60% is the sort of figure you need to get herd immunity.”

Until more is understood about the rate at which the pathogen spreads and the level of the threat, however, social distancing is the government’s central message.

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Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a press conference yesterday to urge UK citizens to self-isolate for seven days if they experience even mild symptoms of coronavirus.

According to Public Health England, the most common early warning signs of coronavirus (COVID-19) are:

• New continuous cough and/or
• High temperature

If you experience mild symptoms, you should also:

• Plan ahead and ask others for help to ensure that you can successfully stay at home
• Ask your employer, friends and family to help you get the things you need to Stay at home
• Stay at least two metres (about three steps) away from other people in your home if possible
• Sleep alone, if possible
• Wash your hands regularly for 20 seconds, each time using soap and water
• Stay away from vulnerable individuals, such as the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, as much as possible

As PHE explains, you do not need to call the online help service NHS 111 if you go into self-isolation.

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You should only contact the online help service if your symptoms worsen during home isolation or are no better after seven days, cautions the health body.

“If you have no internet access, call NHS 111. For a medical emergency dial 999,” it added.

Coronavirus UK – what we know so far

Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illnesses ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV).

A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans.

Coronaviruses are zoonotic, meaning they are transmitted between animals and people.

Detailed investigations found that SARS-CoV was transmitted from civet cats to humans and MERS-CoV from dromedary camels to humans.

Several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans.

As of 9am on 13 March 2020, 32,771 people have been tested in the UK, of which 31,973 were confirmed negative and 798 were confirmed as positive.

10 patients who tested positive for COVID-19 have died.

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